Surprisingly from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic, there was not much deviation in what the estimate is as to what the known reserves are out there. It is about 1,000 gigabarrels [42 trillion gallons of crude oil].
That sounds like an awful lot of oil. But when you divide into that the amount of oil which we use, about 20 million barrels [840 million gallons] a day, and the amount of oil the rest of the world uses, about 60 million barrels a day, as a matter of fact, the total now is a bit over the 80 million that those two add up to. About 83 1/2 [about 3.5 billion gallons of crude oil per day for the entire world], I think.
If you divide that into the 1,000 gigabarrels, you come out at about 40 years of oil remaining in the world. [I get 32.8 years]
That is pretty good. Because up until the Carter years, during the Carter years, in every decade we used as much oil as had been used in all of previous history.
Let me repeat that, because that is startling. In every decade, we used as much oil as had been used in all of previous history.
The reason for that, of course, was that we were on the upward side of this bell curve. The bell curve for usage, only part of it is shown on this chart. That is the green one down here, the bell curve for usage. Notice that we are out here now about 2005.
Where is it going? The Energy Information Agency says that we are going to keep on using more oil. This green line just going up and up and up is a projection of the Energy Information Agency. But that cannot be true. That cannot be true for a couple of reasons. We peaked in our discovery of oil way back here in the late sixties, about 1970. In our country it peaked much earlier than that, by the way. But the world is following several years behind us. And the area under this red curve [total oil discovered] must be the same as the area under the green curve [total oil extracted]. You cannot pump any more oil than you have found, quite obviously. If you have not found it, you cannot pump it.
If you were to extend this on out where they have extended their green line, even if it turned down right there at the end of that green line, the area under the green curve is going to be very much larger than the area under the red curve. That just cannot be. We will see in some subsequent charts that we probably have reached peak oil.
Although I haven't studied Rep. Bartlett's other positions, he is a Republican, and so I probably don't agree with many of them. Nevertheless, I phoned his Washington office to express my appreciation for the service he has performed for the entire country, and in fact for the world, by delivering this talk.
Not only has he educated his peers -- who now have no excuse not to pay attention -- he has also provided an excellent reference text for any member of the public who wishes to learn more about this critically important issue.
I cannot urge too strongly that all Kosmopolitans consider reading this transcript. It is probably the easiest and most transparently credible way you can catch up with the scientific facts of oil depletion.
Our gathered Members of Congress have now seen and heard a timely, well reasoned argument that the world's daily output of oil will very soon reach a peak and then begin to fall off, never to rise again.
Did they choose to listen and to understand?
And among those who did listen and understand -- will they now choose to act?
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