(cross-posted at mydd)

It is not often in politics that you can get a knock-down argument that clearly should persuade the vast majority of the electorate, but I believe circumstance has provided the Barack Obama campaign with such an argument in his primary battle with Hillary Clinton.

It is an argument that starts from ground that most of the democratic primary voters share and leads to the conclusion that Obama is, at this point, incontrovertibly the candidate that should be supported by superdelegates and by the voters in the March 4th states.  I believe the argument is so strong and relatively obvious that it will percolate down to enough undecided voters that the nomination battle will be effectively over on March 4th after Obama takes Ohio and Texas.  But this diary is not about making a prediction; rather I intend to convince you that at this point, there is only one candidate for a good Democrat to support.

If you want a nice look into the minds of those who label their values 'traditional,' go over to redstate and check out Erick's commentary on Emma Rose.

Emma Rose is a girl who lived an abusive family and was finally taken in by a lesbian named Elizabeth Hadaway.  By all accounts, Emma Rose prospered in the care of Hadaway.  But

In November, Hadaway went before Judge Lee Parrott to have her adoption finalized. By all accounts, she had made tremendous progress with Emma, who could now read, had developed writing skills, was more social, etc. The Department of Family and Child Services ("DFACS") was on board and everything was ready to go. Then Judge Parrott, originally supportive, decided no. In effect, he ruled that Hadaway and her partner of seven years were trying to pull a fast one on the court and pretend to be married, despite a constitutional provision denying gay marriage. Expecting this, Hadaway had ended her relation with her partner, moved from her partner's home, and rented an apartment.

A significant poll from the republic polling firm of Strategic Vision.  I think there are three interesting results.

4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)

Yes 52%
No 39%
Undecided 9%

Msnbc has a breaking banner that says Governor Vilsack is going to drop out of the presidential race.  One down eight to go.

I suspect this is a play for the VP slot under Hillary, the logic being that the centrist, DLC types who like Vilsack will shift much of their weight behind Hill. and give her a boost in Iowa where Vilsack was pulling between 8 and 16% in the polls.

I also think this is good for Richardson.  He's now the only Governor left in the race.  I see him moving up in Iowa after this.

What do you think?  Who does this help?

Will update with news.

UPDATE: from bumblebums below, desmoines register

The two factors cited appear to be 1) an inability to raise the money needed and 2) the low liklihood of winning the Iowa Caucus which was a must win for him

ABC, apparently, has been waiting with held breath for Obama to announce.  Look at their front page now (or don't and I'll tell you what you'll see).

First: one of their top five stories is:

The Obama Myth: Why are some of the Facts actually Fiction
Sen. Barack Obama is now officially in the hunt for the presidency. But a close reading of his memoirs may lead to doubts about his political biography.

The story? Be prepared to change your opinion of Obama on the flop.

This is breaking news.  Ron Paul is forming an exploratory committee for the 2008 presidential campaign.

Rumors had been going around for a few days that he would pull together the libertarian and constitution parties for a run.  Ron Paul is a died in the wool Libertarian against the war from the beginning, against the patriot act.  The question now is he running as a Republican or not?

I'd be much happier if he'd run as a third party candidate.  If he teamed up with Bob Barr he could create some noise in this environment, maybe pull 2- 5% from the Republican nominee.  Will update with news.

UPDATE: He's running as a republican.

Okay so I think there's almost no chance that Paul would get the Republican nomination, but he's run as a third party candidate before and maybe he'll keep fighting after the primary bell.

I have put together a table of the red states that I think we have a clean shot at turning blue in 2008.  This is arranged in the order of the likelihood of flipping.  The lower the tier number or ranking number the higher the liklihood of flipping:

Top Tier: 37 EV i. Ohio 20   ii. Iowa 7 iii. New Mexico  5 iv. Nevada 5

Second Tier 60 EV v. Colorado 9 vi.. Missouri 11 vii. Virginia 13 viii. Florida 27

Third Tier 39 EV ix. Arkansas 6 x. Montana 3 xi. West Virginia 5 xiii. North Car. 15 xiv. Arizona 10

Fourth Tier 28 EV xv. Louisiana 9 xvi. Kentucky 8 xvii. Tennessee 11

OK this is going to be quick.  But y'all want to see this.

From mydd

   
    * NY-20: Gillibrand (D) 54%--41% Sweeney (R-i)
    * NY-29: Massa (D) 52%--40% Kuhl (R-i)
    * NY-19: Hall (D) 49%--40% Kelly (R-i)
    * NY-25: Maffei (D) 51%--43% Walsh (R-i)
    * IL-08: Bean (D-i) 47%--44% McSweeney (R)
    * IL-10: Kirk (R-i) 46%--44% Seals (D)

These are new polls from Majority Watch
You can look at the crosstabs there.

It should be impossible for Lieberman to win.  The underlying political structure of this race is remarkably unstable.  Only a complete disregard by the Lamont team for the unusual political dynamics has allowed Lieberman his lead.

Strategy: Drop the negative ads against Lieberman (with one exception I'll mention later).  Put your money into negative issue ads against Schlesinger.  Lamont should define himself as the Democratic candidate in the race by defining Schlesinger as the Republican candidate.  This will increase Schlesinger's share of the vote, increase Lamont's share of the vote , and decrease Lieberman's share of the vote.

[update] Bowers and Zogby agree: *The house is ours to lose.*  It's time for nails in coffin lids, it's time to goose the size-challenged lady, and once you're done with that, it's time to cook the Republican goose. It's time to mix and mangle your metaphors like Yogi Berra.  

The house is ours to lose.  Chris Bowers had the chances at a dem takeover of the house ay 90% before Foley. The complete list of independent polls has the house tied with the wind at our back. Polls of the top forty-five competitive Republican districts have dems ahead on the generic ballot and just three points back in the named. 3 points behind in republican districts. The house is ours to lose.

And the Senate is within our grasp. We should win Red states turning blue: Montana and Ohio. We should win in blue states with red senators: Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.  That's a pick-up of four. We need six. We're winning or tied in Tennessee.  We're tied in Missouri. We're tied or within five points in Virginia.  We need two of those three and to hold New Jersey.  It's a longish shot, but it's within our grasp.

So do you think these are the key lines from the abc report?

Maf54: You in your boxers, too?
Teen:  Nope, just got home. I had a college interview that went late.
Maf54: Well, strip down and get relaxed.

Nope.

How about this?

Maf54: Do I make you a little horny?
Teen:  A little.
Maf54: Cool.

Uh-Uh

[update] Finally.  BLoggers and mainstream media alike haven't been paying attention to the killer story on Allen's racism.  Everyone wants to talk about the N word and that's good and it's got some mileage left in it.  

But video of Tweety has finaly hit on the story that will finish Allen for good.  

Doesn't that sum it up nicely?  Gearge Allen is a bullying, sicko, racist, liar.  This is noose, macaca and the N word all in one.  The thing about the N word is you can say "he was young" or "most people in the south had said something like that back then."  However illegitimate those answers I've already started to hear them.  And they have some force.

But the Dead Doe story?  No talking your way out of that.

Lead with the Head.

Below I repost a diary I wrote about this two days go.  Argument still stands.

LEAD. WITH . THE . HEAD.  Please fucking jehosophat.  LEAD WITH THE GODDAMN HEAD IN THE MAILBOX.

George Allen cut off the head of a doe and put it in the mailbox of some "n__'s" house, presumably, because he wanted them to "know their place."  
salon

Yep, you heard me.  The head of a dead doe.

And what are our front page bloggers leading with?  No offense.  I love these guys and gals, but they are leading with....

'Allen used the N word in college.'  

Sorry mcjoan.  Not gonna cut it.

Sorry raisingkaine.  That's not the story.

Nope, Josh Marshall at TPM.

Allen said the N word?

Please.

MSNBC is reporting that the Supreme Court has Overturned part of Tom Delay's redistricting effort in Texas.

The Supreme Court on Wednesday threw out part of a Texas congressional map engineered by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, saying some of the new boundaries failed to protect minority voting rights.

The fractured decision was a small victory for Democratic and minority groups who accused Republicans of an unconstitutional power grab in drawing boundaries that booted four Democratic incumbents out of office.

I don't know how old this news is here, but I haven't seen it.  The presidential campaign is officially on when the fighting over consultants hits the weekly magazines.  Apparently, Dave Mudcat Sanders of Mark Warner fame has left (presumably with Steve Jarding, but I'm not sure of that) the Warner Presidential Campaign© for the Edwards Presidential Campaign©.  

Newsweek

[Edwards] hasn't yet declared himself a presidential candidate, but he has wooed away an adviser to former Virginia governor Mark Warner, Edwards's rival to be the Southern alternative to Sen. Hillary Clinton in '08. Dave (Mudcat) Saunders, an architect of Warner's successful NASCAR-themed strategy in 2001, will join Edwards to reach out to former Democrats in rural areas.

Discussion on the flip.

As most of you know, the mainstream press has sniffed us out, but as if encountering an alien creature they don't understand, they are yet to realize that we  are a multigendered 'we' and not a 'he.'  This will require our best intercivilizational communication efforts.

Right now we are doing our best to respond.  Several diaries have alrady gone up on this point.  One point that I think we all can agree on: anyone that thinks this website's focus is primarily on Markos hasn't read the website.  

This diary is an opportunity for us not to just say that, but to *show it* by actively and loudly disagreeing with Markos on whatever you wish:

This is a good exercise for the codependent blogger.  Be strong; we're all here for you.  Markos is far away and he rarely comments in these diaries anyway.

I like the new linger that's taken over the city.  It makes me ache in pleasing ways to watch a woman walk her dog as if she's dipping her toe in the lake in the morning and as if she's waiting for the sun to rise so she can soak.  I don't know if it's the change in the weather or the ongoing political situation, but everywhere people are cashing out there time and spending it with a casual opening of their hands.  

Ok, it's time to put your moolah where your moocher is.

Take the 1% challenge.

You say you're a progressive; you spend at least (at least!) ten minutes every day reading Daily Kos.  That's (at least) 60 hours a year.  

Presumably, you read DKOS because you want progressive change; you want government and leadership more responsive to the people.  

You probably get angry at things like unnecessary wars, and large legislative boondoggles for large legislator's friends, and the government sitting by while poor people drown (literally and metaphorically).